| نویسنده: | |
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| گوینده: | Joel Richards |
| مدت: | 9 hours and 45 minutes |
کتاب Superforecasting به بررسی توانایی برخی افراد در پیشبینی دقیق آینده میپردازد؛ تواناییای که حتی از تحلیلگران اطلاعاتی با دسترسی به دادههای محرمانه نیز فراتر میرود. فیلیپ تتلاک و دن گاردنر با تکیه بر پروژهای دولتی به نام «قضاوت خوب»، نشان میدهند که افراد عادی با ذهنی باز، فروتنی فکری، و روشهای تحلیلی دقیق میتوانند به پیشبینیهایی بسیار قابل اعتماد دست یابند. این کتاب با زبانی روان و مثالهای واقعی، راهکارهایی برای بهبود تصمیمگیری در زندگی روزمره، تجارت، سیاست و امور جهانی ارائه میدهد.
From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people – including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer – who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters”.
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future – whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life – and is destined to become a modern classic.
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